CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7
The standard
Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
Common Core State Standards for Mathematics · Statistics and Probability
What this standard means
Students need to build a probability model, like a list, table, tree diagram, or organized sample space, and use it to predict how likely events are. They also need to run or study trials, record results, and compare what actually happened with what the model predicted.
Mastery looks like explaining both numbers and reasons. A student can say, “The model predicts 1 out of 4, but our trials showed 8 out of 20, likely because the sample was small.” Students often get stuck mixing up experimental results with theoretical probability, leaving out outcomes, or thinking a mismatch always means the model is wrong.
Ways to teach it
- Have pairs roll two number cubes 50 times, record sums, then compare their results to a complete sum probability table.
- Ask students to write: When should we trust a probability model more than trial results, and when should we question it?
- Give a spinner diagram and 20 trial results, then ask students to find one predicted probability and explain any mismatch.
- Use weather forecasts to compare a 30 percent chance of rain with actual rainy days over a month.
Plan a lesson for CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7
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Related standards
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.6
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predi...
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7a
Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events.
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7b
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C
Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models.