CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.6
The standard
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability.
Common Core State Standards for Mathematics · Statistics and Probability
What this standard means
Students need to connect probability with experimental results. They should run or examine a chance process, track outcomes, find relative frequencies, and use those results to estimate probability. They also need to work the other direction, using a known probability to predict about how many times an event will happen in many trials.
Mastery looks like saying, “The probability is about 1 out of 3, so in 90 trials I expect about 30,” while also knowing the result may not be exact. Students often get stuck thinking probability guarantees exact counts, or they mix up experimental probability with theoretical probability.
Ways to teach it
- Have pairs roll a number cube 60 times, tally 1s or 2s, then compare class results to the expected one-third probability.
- Ask students to write: Why might rolling a 3 or 6 600 times not give exactly 200 successes?
- Show 40 coin-flip results and ask students to estimate the probability of heads using relative frequency.
- Connect to weather by asking how many rainy days to expect in 30 days if the rain chance is 20%.
Plan a lesson for CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.6
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Related standards
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.5
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate grea...
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7a
Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events.
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7
Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good...
- CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7b
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.