CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.A.1

MathGrades 9–12Using Probability to Make Decisions

The Standard

(+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions.

Common Core State Standards for Mathematics

Teacher's field guide

What This Standard Means

What Students Need to Do

Students choose a numerical variable that captures a quantity from a chance situation. They connect every possible outcome to a value, combine probabilities for repeated values, and graph value against probability.

What Mastery Looks Like

Given a sample space, students can define a numerical variable and make a complete probability table and graph. Their probabilities are correct, total 1, and appear on the correct graph axes.

Common Misconceptions

Students may list outcomes such as HH and HT as variable values instead of mapping them to numbers. They may forget to add probabilities when several outcomes produce the same value. They may graph trial counts instead of probabilities, or create probabilities that do not total 1.

How to Assess It

Give this exit ticket: A game pays $0 for no heads, $2 for one head, and $5 for two heads after two fair coin flips. Make a probability table and graph.

Lesson moves

Ways to Teach It

  1. Use two dice and a 36-cell outcome grid to group sums, calculate each probability, and graph the distribution.

  2. Ask, “For two coin flips, how do number of heads and winnings describe the same outcomes differently?”

  3. Draw cards labeled red, blue, and gold with assigned points, then race to complete the correct probability table and graph.

  4. Model an insurance payout from listed claim outcomes, then graph payout amounts against their probabilities and explain the most likely cost.

Learning progression

Where This Standard Sits

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