CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.7
The standard
(+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
Common Core State Standards for Mathematics
What this standard means
Students need to use probability to compare choices when outcomes are uncertain. They should connect expected value, conditional probability, false positives, false negatives, risk, and payoff to a real decision. The goal is not just calculating a probability, but using it to support a strategy.
Mastery looks like a student explaining which choice is better, using numbers and clear assumptions. Students often get stuck treating all errors as equal, ignoring base rates, or giving an answer without comparing costs and benefits. They also may calculate correctly but miss what the result means in context.
Ways to teach it
- Have students simulate a medical test with colored beads in bags, then track true positives, false positives, and false negatives.
- Ask students to write a recommendation: Should a coach pull the goalie with two minutes left, using given scoring probabilities?
- Give a two-question exit ticket with one expected value comparison and one question asking which assumption matters most.
- Use a product quality example where students decide whether a company should inspect every item, sample items, or skip testing.
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Related standards
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B
Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.6
(+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.5
(+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.B.9
(+) Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems.