CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B
The standard
Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions
Common Core State Standards for Mathematics · High School — Statistics and Probability
What this standard means
Students need to use probabilities, expected values, and payoff tables to compare choices. They should connect a chance model to a real decision, then explain which option is better and why. The math is not just finding a probability. It is using that probability to justify an action.
Mastery looks like a student building or reading a table of outcomes, multiplying payoffs by probabilities, and comparing long-run results. Students often get stuck treating the most likely outcome as the best choice, ignoring rare but costly outcomes, or mixing up experimental probability with a stated probability model.
Ways to teach it
- Use a spinner, play-money payouts, and a payoff table so students test which game is better over 20 spins.
- Ask students to write: Would you buy the warranty, and what probability or cost would change your mind?
- Give a two-option payoff table and have students compute expected value, then choose the better option in three minutes.
- Compare two phone insurance plans using monthly cost, deductible, replacement price, and estimated chance of damage.
Plan a lesson for CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B
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Related standards
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.6
(+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.5
(+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.7
(+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.5b
Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values.