CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.5b
The standard
Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values.
Common Core State Standards for Mathematics · Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions
What this standard means
Students need to use expected value to compare choices where outcomes are uncertain. They should multiply each possible outcome by its probability, add the results, and use the totals to judge which strategy is better financially or practically.
Mastery looks like a student building a clear probability table, calculating expected values correctly, and explaining the better choice in context. Students often get stuck treating the most likely outcome as the best choice, ignoring rare high-cost outcomes, or forgetting to include fixed costs like premiums, fees, or deductibles.
Ways to teach it
- Give pairs two insurance plan cards and accident probability cards, then have them calculate expected yearly cost for each plan.
- Ask students to write which phone protection plan they would choose and defend it using expected value, not opinion.
- Use an exit ticket with three lottery-style payouts and ask students to rank them by expected value.
- Compare school fundraiser options by estimating costs, likely sales, and possible profits, then choose the better strategy.
Plan a lesson for CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.5b
Generate a complete lesson plan aligned to this standard, with objectives, activities, and materials. Free, no account needed.
Related standards
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B
Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.A
Calculate expected values and use them to solve problems
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.5
(+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
- CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.5a
Find the expected payoff for a game of chance.