NY Next Generation Math AII-S.IC.2

MathGrades 9–12Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments.

The Standard

Determine if a value for a sample proportion or sample mean is likely to occur based on a given simulation.

New York State Next Generation Mathematics Learning Standards

Teacher's field guide

What Students Need to Do: Students use a simulation distribution to judge whether a sample proportion or mean is plausible. In this course, they use the interval within two standard deviations of the simulation mean.
What Mastery Looks Like: The student finds the simulation mean and estimates or calculates two standard deviations. They compare the observed statistic with the interval within two standard deviations of that mean. They call it approximately a 95 percent interval only for a roughly bell-shaped distribution, and use likely or unusual accurately.
Common Misconceptions: Students may compare a raw data value instead of the sample statistic. They may treat every value outside the interval as impossible rather than unlikely under the model.
How to Assess It: Show a simulation mean, standard deviation, and observed statistic. Ask whether the statistic is plausible and require the interval calculation.

Lesson moves

Stack simulation-result cards on a number line and shade the region within two standard deviations.
Ask what an observed statistic outside the interval within two standard deviations says about the proposed model.
Play plausible-or-unusual with simulation centers, standard deviations, and observed statistics.
Test whether a reported poll proportion is plausible under a stated population claim.

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