NY Next Generation Math AII-S.IC.2

MathGrades 9–12Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments.

The Standard

Determine if a value for a sample proportion or sample mean is likely to occur based on a given simulation.

New York State Next Generation Mathematics Learning Standards

Teacher's field guide

What Students Need to Do: Students use a simulation distribution to judge whether a sample proportion or mean is plausible. In this course, they use the interval within two standard deviations of the simulation mean.
What Mastery Looks Like: The student locates the center, estimates or calculates two standard deviations, and compares the observed statistic with the 95 percent interval. The conclusion uses likely or unusual accurately.
Common Misconceptions: Students may compare a raw data value instead of the sample statistic. They may treat every value outside the interval as impossible rather than unlikely under the model.
How to Assess It: Show a simulation mean, standard deviation, and observed statistic. Ask whether the statistic is plausible and require the interval calculation.

Lesson moves

Stack simulation-result cards on a number line and shade the region within two standard deviations.
Ask what an observed statistic outside the 95 percent interval says about the proposed model.
Play plausible-or-unusual with simulation centers, standard deviations, and observed statistics.
Test whether a reported poll proportion is plausible under a stated population claim.

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