Montana Math MT.7.SP.5

Math7th GradeStatistics and Probability

The Standard

Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring.

2026 Montana Mathematics Content Standards

Teacher's field guide

What Students Need to Do: Students use numbers from 0 to 1 to describe how likely an event is. They explain why 0 means impossible, 1 means certain, and numbers between them show different chances.
What Mastery Looks Like: Given a bag with four red tiles and one blue tile, a student assigns 0 to drawing green, 4/5 to drawing red, and 1 to drawing red or blue. They can explain why drawing red is likely but not certain.
Common Misconceptions: Students may think 0 means very unlikely rather than impossible, or 1 means very likely rather than certain. Some use numbers above 1 for events they think are highly likely.
How to Assess It: Exit ticket: For one roll of a fair six-sided die, give the probability of rolling 7, rolling an even number, and rolling less than 7. Explain one answer.

Lesson moves

Put four red and one blue tile in a bag, then have students assign probabilities to drawing red, green, or either color.
Ask students, 'Why does rolling a 7 on a six-sided die have probability 0, but rolling under 7 has probability 1?'
Have partners match die events (7, 1, odd, less than 6, less than 7) to 0, 1/6, 1/2, 5/6, and 1.
Show forecasts of 20% rain on Monday and 80% rain on Tuesday, then have students write 0.2 and 0.8 and compare.

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