Montana Math MT.7.SP.6
The Standard
Find the experimental probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. This standard should incorporate cultural context relating to Montana Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
2026 Montana Mathematics Content Standards
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students repeat a chance process, record each result, and divide the number of times an event occurs by the total trials. They compare estimates from small and large sets of trials.
What Mastery Looks Like
- After 37 red draws in 100 trials, a student estimates the chance of red as 37%. They explain why another 100 draws might give a different result and why more trials usually make the estimate steadier.
Common Misconceptions
- Students may divide by the number of possible outcomes instead of the number of trials. Some think a run of misses makes red more likely on the next draw.
How to Assess It
- Exit ticket: A bag draw with replacement gives 23 blue tickets in 80 draws. Estimate the chance of blue, and explain whether 10 more draws must give the same percentage.
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Put 3 red and 7 blue counters in a bag; students draw, replace, and tally 100 trials to estimate red's chance.
Ask, 'Why might 10 draws give a different estimate than 100 draws?' Have students cite two class tallies in a written answer.
Play a coin-flip prediction game: teams estimate heads after 20 flips, then flip 80 more and compare the two fractions.
Plan a mock raffle for a Salish Kootenai College student event; use class data to predict red-ticket draws out of 200.
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Printable MT.7.SP.6 Worksheet
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