Florida B.E.S.T. MA.912.DP.4.6
The Standard
Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations.
Florida B.E.S.T. Standards for Mathematics
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students describe the chance of an event when another event is already known. They decide whether two events are independent and explain their reasoning in everyday language.
What Mastery Looks Like
- A student can interpret “among students who ride the bus” as a restricted group. They can compare rates and explain whether knowing one event changes the chance of another.
Common Misconceptions
- Students often confuse events that cannot happen together with independent events. They may reverse conditions, treating “late given bus rider” as “bus rider given late.” They may also assume any relationship proves causation.
How to Assess It
- Exit ticket: Of 40 bus riders, 10 are late. Of 60 other students, 15 are late. Is lateness independent of bus use? Explain.
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Have pairs draw colored tiles with and without replacement, then describe how the first draw affects the chance of the second.
Ask, “Does carrying an umbrella make rain more likely?” Students write two sentences separating association from cause.
Sort scenario cards into independent, dependent, or mutually exclusive groups, then require a one-sentence reason for each choice.
Use a two-way table of transportation method and lateness to compare group rates and decide whether the variables appear related.
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Related Standards
- MA.8.DP.2.3
Solve real-world problems involving probabilities related to single or repeated experiments, including making predictions based on theoretical probability.
- MA.912.DP.4
Use and interpret independence and probability.
- MA.912.DP.4.3
Calculate the conditional probability of two events and interpret the result in terms of its context.
- MA.912.DP.4.4
Interpret the independence of two events using conditional probability.
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