Virginia SOL 4.PS.2

4.PS.2 is a Standards of Learning standard. These are the knowledge and skills expectations under it.

• 4.PS.2.a

  Describe probability as the degree of likelihood of an outcome occurring using terms such as impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, and certain.

• 4.PS.2.b

  Model and determine all possible outcomes of a given simple event where there are no more than 24 possible outcomes, using a variety of manipulatives (e.g., coi...

• 4.PS.2.c

  Write the probability of a given simple event as a fraction between 0 and 1, where there are no more than 24 possible outcomes.

• 4.PS.2.d

  Determine the likelihood of an event occurring and relate it to its whole number or fractional representation (e.g., impossible or zero; equally likely; certain...

• 4.PS.2.e

  Create a model or contextual problem to represent a given probability.

01

What Students Need to Do

Students identify every possible outcome of one simple event using coins, counters, number cubes, or spinners. They write an event's probability as a fraction from 0 to 1. They describe that probability with words such as impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, or certain.

02

What Mastery Looks Like

Students list all outcomes without missing or repeating any. They write probability as favorable outcomes over total outcomes, then connect the fraction to an accurate likelihood word. They can also build a spinner, cube, or context to match a given probability.

03

Common Misconceptions

Students may count favorable outcomes but forget to count all possible outcomes for the denominator. They may think unlikely means impossible or likely means certain. Some assume outcomes are equally likely even when spinner sections differ in size.

04

How to Assess It

Exit ticket: An eight-section spinner has three red, three blue, and two green sections. List the outcomes, find P(green), and label its likelihood.

1. 01

   Pairs roll a number cube, list all outcomes, find the probability of rolling above four, then test their prediction with 30 rolls.

2. 02

   Ask students to explain in writing why a probability of zero is impossible and a probability of one is certain.

3. 03

   Students match cards showing spinners, event descriptions, fractions, and likelihood words, then explain any matches their partner questions.

4. 04

   Plan a classroom prize draw with eight equal cards, including three winning cards, and calculate each student's chance of drawing a winner.

• 8.PS.1

  The student will use statistical investigation to determine the probability of independent and dependent events, including those in context.

• 7.PS.1

  The student will use statistical investigation to determine the probability of an event and investigate and describe the difference between the experimental and...

• 5.PS.3

  The student will determine the probability of an outcome by constructing a model of a sample space and using the Fundamental (Basic) Counting Principle.