Virginia SOL 4.PS.2.d
The Standard
Determine the likelihood of an event occurring and relate it to its whole number or fractional representation (e.g., impossible or zero; equally likely; certain or one).
Virginia Standards of Learning for Mathematics · The student will model and determine the probability of an outcome of a simple event.
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students decide how likely a simple event is by examining all possible outcomes. They describe it as impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, or certain and match that description to a whole number or fraction.
What Mastery Looks Like
- Given a bag, spinner, or number cube, students identify favorable and total equally likely outcomes and write the probability as a fraction. They connect 0 with impossible, 1/2 with equally likely, and 1 with certain.
Common Misconceptions
- Students may use the number of favorable outcomes without comparing it with the total number of outcomes. They may think likely means certain, or use 1/2 whenever an event has two named choices.
How to Assess It
- Exit ticket: A bag contains 2 red, 1 blue, and 1 green tile. Write the probability and likelihood word for drawing red, blue, purple, and any colored tile.
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Give pairs bags of colored counters; students list possible draws, write each color’s probability, and place events on a likelihood line.
Ask, “Is rolling an even number more likely than rolling a 6?” Students write fractions and defend their answer to a partner.
Play a matching game with event cards, likelihood words, and probability cards showing 0, fractions, and 1.
Compare 0%, 50%, and 100% rain forecasts, then have students rewrite each as a fraction and likelihood word.
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Printable 4.PS.2.d Worksheet
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Related Standards
- 8.PS.1.c
Determine the probability of two independent events.
- 7.PS.1.a
Determine the theoretical probability of an event.
- 4.PS.2.c
Write the probability of a given simple event as a fraction between 0 and 1, where there are no more than 24 possible outcomes.
- 4.PS.2.a
Describe probability as the degree of likelihood of an outcome occurring using terms such as impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, and certain.
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