HS-ESS3-5
The standard
Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.
Next Generation Science Standards
What this standard means
Students need to read climate data, compare it with model output, and use both to make a forecast. They should focus on one climate change, such as rising temperature or changing rainfall, and connect it to one impact, such as sea level rise, ice loss, or ocean changes.
Mastery looks like a clear claim backed by graphed data and model evidence, with limits named. Students often mix up weather and climate, treat models as guesses, or describe impacts without tying them to the data trend. They also need help explaining uncertainty without dismissing the evidence.
Ways to teach it
- Give pairs NASA temperature anomaly graphs and IPCC model projections, then have them annotate trend, rate of change, and predicted impact.
- Ask students to write: What evidence best supports a forecast of sea level rise, and what uncertainty remains?
- Use an exit ticket with one graph and ask for a claim, one data point, and one future impact.
- Have students examine local flood maps or heat data and connect one projected climate trend to a community planning choice.
Plan a lesson for HS-ESS3-5
Generate a complete lesson plan aligned to this standard, with objectives, activities, and materials. Free, no account needed.
Related standards
- MS-ESS2-2
Construct an explanation based on evidence for how geoscience processes have changed Earth's surface at varying time and spatial scales.
- MS-ESS2-6
Develop and use a model to describe how unequal heating and rotation of the Earth cause patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation that determine regional ...
- HS-ESS2-2
Analyze geoscience data to make the claim that one change to Earth's surface can create feedbacks that cause changes to other Earth systems.
- HS-ESS2-4
Use a model to describe how variations in the flow of energy into and out of Earth systems result in changes in climate.