Montana Math MT.CORE.DATA.LIT.3

MathGrades 9–12Quantitative Literacy

The Standard

Distinguish between association and causation.

2026 Montana Mathematics Content Standards · Data Reasoning and Probability

Teacher's field guide

What Students Need to Do: Students spot patterns between two measurements without assuming one makes the other change. They look for other explanations and ask what evidence would support a cause claim.
What Mastery Looks Like: Given a graph of ice cream sales and drownings, a student explains that hot days could increase both. They can explain why a randomized tutoring trial gives stronger evidence of cause than a graph of tutoring hours and grades.
Common Misconceptions: Students may treat a strong pattern as proof that one thing causes another. They often miss a shared factor, such as hot weather increasing both swimming and ice cream sales.
How to Assess It: Exit ticket: “Students who carry water bottles earn higher test scores. Does carrying a bottle improve scores? Name another factor that could explain the pattern.”

Lesson moves

Have pairs record classmates’ heights and shoe sizes, plot the data, and explain why wearing larger shoes does not make someone taller.
Have students write two sentences explaining why bigger fires draw more firefighters instead of firefighters making fires bigger.
Give groups two cards, “Ice cream sales rise with drownings” and “Randomized tutoring improves scores,” to sort by whether a cause claim is supported.
Show a headline claiming phone use lowers grades; ask students how homework habits might affect both.

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