Maryland Math 7.DS.C.6.c
The Standard
- 7.DS.C.6
- Develop and use probability models to find probabilities of events and compare them to observed results.
Compare probabilities from a model to observed data and explain possible reasons for any differences.
Maryland College and Career Ready Standards for Mathematics (2025) · MODEL AND ANALYZE PROBABILITY TO INTERPRET CHANCE EVENTS, COMPARE MODELS WITH OBSERVED DATA, AND MAKE PREDICTIONS.
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students find the probability predicted by a model and the fraction seen in recorded results. They compare the two and suggest why they differ.
What Mastery Looks Like
- For a spinner with one red section out of four, a student predicts 25% red. If red appears 8 times in 20 spins, they calculate 40% observed and explain that the gap could be due to chance or an uneven spinner.
Common Misconceptions
- Students may compare a count, such as 8 reds, directly with a percent, such as 25%. Some think a model guarantees exact results in every set of trials, or that any difference proves the model is wrong.
How to Assess It
- Exit ticket: A spinner has four equal sections, one red. Red appears 8 times in 20 spins. Find the predicted and observed probabilities, then give one possible reason they differ.
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Make a four-section paper spinner with one red section. Spin a paper clip 20 times and compare the red tally with the prediction.
Ask, 'A fair coin lands heads 7 times in 10 flips. Does that prove it is unfair?' Have students explain in writing.
Give pairs cards showing 3, 8, and 14 reds in 20 spins. Have them rank each result by its gap from a 25% red model.
Hand out a weather log with twenty 40% rain forecasts and eleven rainy days. Ask students to compare the expected and observed counts.
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Related Standards
- 8.DS.A.1
Evaluate predictions and conclusions drawn from bivariate data.
- 7.DS.C.6
Develop and use probability models to find probabilities of events and compare them to observed results.
- 8.DS.B.3
Compare the fit of different linear models shown on scatter plots of the same data by describing the overall pattern and the closeness of data points to each li...
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