Georgia 7.PR.6.3
The Standard
Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of simple events. Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
Georgia's K-12 Mathematics Standards · Using mathematical reasoning, investigate chance processes and develop, evaluate, and use probability models to find probabilities of simple events presented in authentic situations.
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students build a probability model by listing possible outcomes and assigning each a probability. They use trials to estimate probabilities, compare results with predictions, and explain why the values may differ.
What Mastery Looks Like
- A student can list outcomes, assign probabilities, and check that the probabilities total 1. The student can compare predicted and observed results, then name random variation, sample size, or an unfair procedure as possible causes.
Common Misconceptions
- Students may assume all outcomes are equally likely, even when a spinner or bag is uneven. They may expect experimental results to match predictions exactly. Some divide by the number of favorable outcomes instead of the total number of trials or possible outcomes.
How to Assess It
- Exit ticket: A bag has 3 red and 2 blue counters. Find the predicted probability of red, compare it with 9 red draws in 20 trials with replacement, and explain the difference.
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Pairs spin a four-color spinner 50 times, record results in a table, and compare each observed frequency with the predicted probability.
Discuss: A fair coin lands heads 16 times in 20 flips; does this prove the coin is unfair? Explain with evidence.
Teams draw die-event cards, calculate each probability, roll 30 times, and earn points for accurate comparisons between predicted and observed results.
Analyze a carnival game with colored tokens in a bag, then decide whether the posted chance of winning matches the game setup.
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Printable 7.PR.6.3 Worksheet
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Related Standards
- 7.PR.6.4
Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes and use the model to determine probabilities of events.
- 7.PR.6
Using mathematical reasoning, investigate chance processes and develop, evaluate, and use probability models to find probabilities of simple events presented in...
- 7.PR.6.2
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on an event and observing its long-run relative frequency will approach the theoretical probabi...
- 7.PR.6.5
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.
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