CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.A

MathGrades 9–12Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability

Standard Cluster

Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data

Common Core State Standards for Mathematics · High School — Statistics and Probability

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Standards in This Cluster

CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.A is a cluster heading. These are the individual standards under it.

Teacher's field guide

What This Cluster Means

What Students Need to Do

Students find probabilities involving two events, including the chance of one event given another. They decide whether events are independent and use probability rules to interpret data.

What Mastery Looks Like

Students correctly use two-way tables, tree diagrams, and formulas to find probabilities. They justify whether events are independent and explain what a conditional probability means in context.

Common Misconceptions

Students often confuse mutually exclusive events with independent events. They may reverse the condition in a conditional probability or add probabilities when they should multiply.

How to Assess It

Give this exit ticket: Of 100 students, 60 play a sport, 30 play an instrument, and 20 do both. Find P(instrument | sport) and decide whether the events are independent.

Lesson moves

Ways to Teach It

  1. Draw colored counters from a bag with and without replacement, record outcomes, and compare how the first draw changes the second.

  2. Ask students to explain whether being absent and missing an assignment are independent, including what data would support their claim.

  3. Run a card sort matching probability situations with two-way tables, tree diagrams, calculations, and labels such as independent or mutually exclusive.

  4. Use a month of weather forecasts and outcomes to calculate the probability of rain given that rain was forecast.

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