Florida B.E.S.T. MA.912.DP.5.5
The Standard
Determine if a specific model is consistent within a given process by analyzing the data distribution from a data-generating process.
Florida B.E.S.T. Standards for Mathematics
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students compare collected data with the distribution expected from a proposed probability model. They decide whether observed differences are ordinary random variation or evidence that the model does not fit.
What Mastery Looks Like
- Students compare an observed distribution with results predicted by a model. They use shape, center, spread, and unusual outcomes to defend whether differences are likely due to chance.
Common Misconceptions
- Students may reject a model whenever observed data do not match its predictions exactly. They may compare only the mean, ignore shape and spread, or draw strong conclusions from a small sample.
How to Assess It
- Give students this prompt: “A fair-coin simulation produced 18 to 32 heads in nearly all sets of 50 flips. One coin produced 39 heads. Is the fair-coin model reasonable? Explain.”
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Students roll a die 60 times, make a frequency plot, and compare results with a uniform model and class simulations.
Ask, “How far from a model’s prediction is too far?” Students cite shape, center, spread, and unusual outcomes in a written claim.
Give pairs of observed statistics and simulation dot plots; teams sort them into consistent or inconsistent, then defend one disputed card.
Compare factory bottle-fill data with its target model, then decide whether random variation or a process problem better explains the difference.
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