Florida B.E.S.T. MA.7.DP.2.3

Math7th GradeDevelop an understanding of probability. Find and compare experimental and theoretical probabilities.

The Standard

Find the theoretical probability of an event related to a simple experiment.

Florida B.E.S.T. Standards for Mathematics

Teacher's field guide

What Students Need to Do: Students list all possible outcomes for a simple experiment and identify which outcomes match a given event. They compare favorable outcomes with all equally likely outcomes to write a probability.
What Mastery Looks Like: A student can create a complete sample space and identify the outcomes that match an event. The student writes and simplifies the correct probability fraction and explains the denominator.
Common Misconceptions: Students may use the number of favorable outcomes as the denominator. They may leave out possible outcomes or treat unequal spinner sections as equally likely. Some confuse predicted probability with results from actual trials.
How to Assess It: Exit ticket: A bag has 3 red, 2 blue, and 5 green tiles. Find P(not green), and label the favorable and total outcomes.

Lesson moves

Give pairs colored tiles to fill a bag, list every possible draw, and calculate probabilities for three teacher-chosen events.
Ask students to explain why the probability of rolling an even number on a number cube is 3 out of 6.
Use a card sort matching simple experiments, events, sample spaces, and probability fractions.
Analyze a school raffle with 200 tickets and calculate each student's chance of winning based on the number purchased.

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