Maryland Math 7.DS.C.4
The Standard
Explain that a probability of 0 means the event is impossible, 1 means it is certain, and values closer to 0 or 1 indicate how unlikely or likely the event is. Use this understanding to estimate the probability of chance events based on knowledge about the context, and compare the likelihood of different events.
Maryland College and Career Ready Standards for Mathematics (2025) · MODEL AND ANALYZE PROBABILITY TO INTERPRET CHANCE EVENTS, COMPARE MODELS WITH OBSERVED DATA, AND MAKE PREDICTIONS.
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students use what they know about a situation to estimate the chance of an event. They compare events and explain which is more likely.
What Mastery Looks Like
- Given a bag with 2 red and 8 blue counters, a student estimates the chance of drawing red as 0.2 and blue as 0.8. They explain that drawing yellow cannot happen and drawing either red or blue is certain.
Common Misconceptions
- Students may think a 0.2 chance means an event must happen once in every five tries. They may assume rain and no rain are equally likely because there are two possible outcomes.
How to Assess It
- Exit ticket: A bag holds 1 green and 4 purple counters. Estimate the chance of drawing green, purple, or orange, then rank the three outcomes from least to most likely.
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Put 2 red and 8 blue counters in a bag; have pairs predict, then draw, replace, and record 20 draws.
Ask, 'Is rolling a 6 more likely than drawing red from a bag with 2 red and 8 blue counters? Why?'
Play Probability Line: give pairs cards showing bag contents and have them place each draw's chance between 0 and 1.
Show weather forecasts of 30% and 80% rain; ask which day is more likely to be wet and whether either forecast guarantees rain.
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Related Standards
- 6.DS.A.2
Use the language of probability (e.g., likely, unlikely, certain, impossible) to describe the likelihood of possible outcomes and to anticipate variability in d...
- 8.DS.C.6
Find probabilities of compound events by representing or simulating the sample space or simulating events.
- 8.DS.C.6.b
Determine the probability of a compound event as a fraction of outcomes in the sample space that result in the event.
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