Wyoming Science HS-ESS3-5

ScienceGrades 9–12Earth and Space Science

The Standard

Analyze data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.

2023 Wyoming Science Content and Performance Standards · ESS3 Earth and Human Activity

Teacher's field guide

What This Standard Means

What Students Need to Do: Students calculate warming per decade from observed temperature data. They compare that rate with climate model results, then forecast future warming and effects on ice, oceans, or rainfall.
What Mastery Looks Like: Students calculate degrees Celsius per decade from dated temperatures. They use numbers from observations and models to support a forecast. They link warming to a likely effect, such as glacier loss, and note that projections depend on emissions.
Common Misconceptions: Students may treat one cold year as evidence that long-term warming has stopped. They may confuse a temperature change with its rate, or treat a model projection as a measurement. Some assume every region warms at the same pace.
How to Assess It: Exit ticket: Give students these sample global temperature anomalies: 0.4°C in 2000, 1.0°C in 2020, and a model projection of 1.4°C in 2040. Ask them to calculate both rates per decade and predict one effect on glaciers.

Lesson moves

Ways to Teach It

Give pairs printed observation and model tables; have them plot both on graph paper and calculate warming per decade.
Show a map of projected Arctic and global warming; ask, "Why might faster Arctic warming matter for sea ice?" Require two map values.
Run a rate relay: teams calculate warming per decade from three dated temperature pairs, then match each rate to a graph.
Give students a Wyoming snowpack chart and a regional warming projection; ask them to predict one effect on spring water supplies for farms.

Free download