Virginia SOL 7.PS.1.d
The Standard
Investigate and describe the difference between the probability of an event found through experiment or simulation versus the theoretical probability of that same event.
Virginia Standards of Learning for Mathematics · The student will use statistical investigation to determine the probability of an event and investigate and describe the difference between the experimental and theoretical probability.
Teacher's field guide
What This Standard Means
What Students Need to Do
- Students calculate theoretical probability from possible outcomes and experimental probability from trial results. They compare the values and explain how random variation and the number of trials affect the difference.
What Mastery Looks Like
- Students correctly find both probabilities for coins, dice, spinners, or simulations and express them as fractions, decimals, or percents. They explain that experimental probability varies but often approaches theoretical probability as trials increase.
Common Misconceptions
- Students may expect experimental results to match theoretical probability exactly. They may divide by the number of possible outcomes instead of the number of trials, or assume more trials guarantee an exact match.
How to Assess It
- A fair die is rolled 60 times, and a 5 appears 8 times. Find both probabilities, calculate their absolute difference, and explain whether the result proves the die is unfair.
Lesson moves
Ways to Teach It
Have pairs spin an equal-section spinner 40 times, tally results, and compare each experimental probability with its theoretical probability.
Ask students to explain why two groups using the same spinner can get different experimental probabilities.
Give students scenario cards to match with theoretical probabilities, experimental results, and correct comparisons.
Analyze 100 simulated factory checks with a 5% defect rate, then compare the observed defect rate with the expected rate.
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Related Standards
- 7.PS.1.b
Given the results of a statistical investigation, determine the experimental probability of an event.
- 7.PS.1
The student will use statistical investigation to determine the probability of an event and investigate and describe the difference between the experimental and...
- 8.PS.1.b
Compare and contrast the probability of independent and dependent events.
- 7.PS.1.a
Determine the theoretical probability of an event.
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